The United Nations is planning to select a new leader this year. After 80 years and nine men in the job, diplomatic circles and civil society organizations are calling for the next secretary-general to be a woman. Some say it’s time, indicating a broader trend of women in political leadership and signaling the importance of addressing historic imbalances.
These explanations are comforting. They suggest progress.
But psychology research offers a more unsettling prediction: The next UN leader will likely be a woman not because of progress, but because the organization is entering a period of acute institutional crisis. When organizations falter, they appoint women.
This is not speculation. It is a well-documented phenomenon known as the “glass cliff.”
Peering over the cliff
First identified by social psychologists who observed that companies experiencing consistently bad performance were more likely to appoint women to their boards, they termed this pattern the “glass cliff.” This means that women are more likely to be selected for precarious leadership roles when organizations are experiencing crisis and criticism.
These findings extend to politics: Women candidates are more likely to be selected to run in unwinnable districts or when presented with “hopeless” seats. Additional studies, congruity theory and research on benevolent sexism have suggested why this happens. Stereotypical woman leadership abilities — compassion, collaboration, empathy — are considered better suited to this risky context and are suddenly valued: “Think crisis-think female.” Whereas, in all other times, the expectation is “think leader-think male.”
There is, however, a subtle, insidious catch.
Women who take on leadership roles during crises face precarity, having inherited a weakened institution, constrained resources, heightened scrutiny and diminished tolerance for error. If the woman leader fails, blame is attached to her and not to the system. This dynamic reinforces rather than dismantles gender stereotypes that women are not competent leaders.
Now consider the UN in 2026, perfect glass-cliff territory.
The world body is facing major financial and reputational challenges. A woman secretary-general would communicate change without immediately redistributing structural power. Indeed, research shows that top woman leaders are more likely to be change agents. It would send a signal of renewal to a frustrated global South and a skeptical civil society. It would also project social norms associated with women leaders, which echo the values in the UN Charter, thereby providing needed fortification to the foundation of the institution.
But organizations in crisis often provide fewer structural supports to new leaders. These leaders inherit complex problems, fragile mandates and ambiguous authority. The result is a paradox: The leader symbolizing transformation (in this case, a woman) may lack the institutional leverage to deliver it, further undermining the possibility of success.
The critical issue here is not whether the next secretary-general will be a woman — if past research is at all predictive, it is probable. The crux is whether the organization and the new leader can avoid falling off the glass cliff.
Recommendations for Madam SG
First, establish a reform agenda early. Incremental reform is insufficient and will just inch you closer to the cliff’s edge. During crises, leaders who encourage and implement substantive change are more effective. For the UN, that means confronting existential questions, decolonizing outdated structures, interrogating assumptions and unjust power dynamics and reimagining a world body fit for purpose. Serious consideration of a Charter review under Article 109 is essential. This provision could enact fundamental reform of the UN, including integrating gender more effectively into the Charter.
Second, coalition-building and distribution of power that crosses boundaries and engages many stakeholders will differentiate success from failure. Glass-cliff leaders perform better when they enter office with broad, cross-cutting support.
Third, because women leaders face more scrutiny, accountability must be institutional and shared, not individualized. When failure is framed as personal rather than as a structural or collective problem, glass-cliff dynamics intensify and gender stereotypes are reinforced. A secretary-general should explicitly anchor reforms in collective mandates and distribute ownership across a wide range of relevant parties.
Fourth, narratives matter. The next secretary-general should emphasize her leadership bona fides rather than the novelty that she is the first woman in the role. This will decrease stereotyping pressure and the tendency to create unrealistic expectations for “the one that made it to the top.”
Finally, the next UN leader must embrace the “communal” strengths often stereotyped as feminine as these are the exact tools needed for major transformation.
If the new secretary-general is a woman, this breakthrough will shatter the glass ceiling. But unless she can avoid getting pushed toward the glass cliff, this is not proof of progress. With the deadlines for secretary-general nominations due tentatively on April 1, it is up to everyone to decide that we are not only ready for a woman to lead the UN but also ready for her to succeed.
This is an opinion essay.
We welcome your comments on this article. What are your thoughts on a woman falling off the "glass cliff"?
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Jennifer Parlamis is a professor of organization development at the University of San Francisco; a visiting scholar at SOAS, University of London, in the Department of Politics and International Studies; and a fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, researching UN Security Council reform. She is an adviser atArticle 109.
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