YEREVAN — Armenia’s incumbent prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and his party Civil Contract won a third term on June 7 in a highly polarized, closely watched election regionally and globally. It was marred by divisive narratives, pressure on public sector employees from the ruling party, arrests of opposition candidates and reports of Russian disinformation campaigns.
Yet, international election observers noted that the high-stakes vote and first scheduled elections for Armenia since 2017 were “calm and well-administered” and “a well-run process.”
Many political experts and Western countries view Pashinyan’s renewed mandate as a further win against Russia’s waning influence in the South Caucasus region. In Armenia, the election reflects the people’s endorsement of the prime minister’s peace agenda, marking a new era of diversified security partners, normalization efforts with neighbors and new regional economic opportunities.
As Moscow struggles to win its four-year war in Ukraine, its dwindling power in the South Caucasus represents another decline for Putin, as Armenians’ recent vote was symbolically anti-Russia. For Europeans, who continue to face Russia’s aggressions in Ukraine and whose security ties to the United States are fraying, bringing Armenia into the European Union orbit is deeply meaningful. For Armenia, the vote reflects the population’s eagerness to embrace a Western agenda of possible prosperity.
Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party took office in 2018 and started exploring a westward path two years ago with the approval of a law for future European Union accession talks after Azerbaijan invaded Armenia in 2022 and Russia failed to come to Armenia’s aid despite being members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Since then, the EU has shown considerable interest in the well-educated but landlocked country. Visa-liberalization talks are underway, and Europe has deployed monitors along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border, the site of two wars, as well as continued to provide security assistance to the country through its European Peace Facility.
Richard Giragosian, the director of the Yerevan-based independent think tank Regional Studies Center, said that Armenia is already receiving benefits from its new European partners even without having EU membership.
Additionally, a tight relationship with Europe reduces provocation of Moscow, Giragosian said, who “still underestimates the EU, doesn’t take them very seriously as a geopolitical grind, unlike NATO or the U.S.”
Trade with Russia
While Armenia realizes it can no longer rely solely on Russia for its security apparatus, trade nevertheless remains a strong leverage for the Kremlin as Yerevan’s most important economic partner through its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Besides Russia, this free-trade market consists of four post-Soviet nations (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan).
In 2025, Russia accounted for about 35 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade, according to the Armenian Statistical Committee. Yerevan’s membership in the EAEU remains unclear, however, since the country cannot be part of both the EAEU and the EU.
In the lead-up to the elections, Putin imposed trade restrictions on fresh produce, fish, water, flowers and other Armenian goods, messaging Moscow’s disdain of Yerevan’s westward tilt. More bans were announced after Pashinyan’s win.
In response, some European nations have opened up their markets and announced a 50-million euro fund to subsidize farmers affected by Russia’s bans.
Armenia’s neighbors
Regionally, Pashinyan has worked to normalize strained relations with its neighbors, notably Türkiye and Azerbaijan. He has pursued peace with the latter after more than three decades of conflict over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Part of the peace agenda hinged on a constitutional referendum to remove any mention of Nagorno-Karabakh from the constitution — a remarkable step for Armenia — and any intent for the territory to reunite with sovereign Armenia in the preamble: a stated prerequisite from Azerbaijan to a peace deal.
Despite an impressive 59 percent turnout on June 7, Civil Contract secured just under 50 percent of the electoral vote, barring Pashinyan from getting the two-thirds majority that is required to hold a referendum. Even the recent recount of votes, prompted by some opposition parties, Civil Contract maintains just a three-fifths majority in parliament, making it impossible for Civil Contract to obtain the numbers needed to legally present a new constitution to voters.
So, the question is how the government plans to move forward.
Before any peace deal is signed, work remains to be done regarding border delimitation in western Armenia, said Naira Sultanyan, the director of the Democracy Development Foundation, a nonprofit advocacy group in Armenia and a founding member of the Peace Bridge Initiative, which brings together civil society, experts and media from Armenia and Azerbaijan for dialogue.
“The ball is on the Azerbaijani side,” Sultanyan said. “The people did send [the Azeris] the message, and it was a very honest message because we had free and fair elections. . . . They now have to decide what we do next in the peace process, because it’s not a secret that much depends on [the Azeris] and their willingness to move forward.”
The reality, however, is more optimistic. A semblance of peace between both nations has held for almost a year, despite no formal arrangement. There have been no reports of cross-border fire or any deaths in nearly two years.
One likely factor deterring renewed hostility is the recent role of the United States as a regional player. The signing of a peace framework brokered by President Trump in August 2025 also established the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), an ambitious infrastructure project to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan and increase American access to minerals in Armenia (a framework on it was signed just days before the elections). TRIPP is one part of an Armenian government project called the Crossroads of Peace, which envisions greater regional connectivity and other economic gains.
Giragosian described TRIPP, which has yet to be built, as a success for Armenia and Azerbaijan and a path to maintaining postwar stability.
As it navigates this new period, however, Armenia is exploring how to ease its over-reliance on Moscow without completely cutting off ties yet. Pashinyan’s first foreign visit after the election is expected to be to Moscow. Meanwhile, efforts to reopen the border with Türkiye continue, contingent on the success of the peace talks with Azerbaijan.
Sandra Sadek is a French-Lebanese, award-winning multimedia journalist covering global affairs, economics and culture.
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